Numbers & Model
Every estimate can be tested.
Every estimate can be tested.
Never mixed quietly.
This page separates published data, local service figures, OTOS modelling estimates and assumptions. The pre-pilot exists to replace modelling with locally validated evidence.
800–900
Estimated local risk cohort
OTOS planning estimate
OTOS planning estimate
50
Pre-pilot target
Bounded 12-week demonstrator
Bounded 12-week demonstrator
≈£18m
Modelled opportunity
Not a guaranteed saving
Not a guaranteed saving
Model discipline
Observed, modelled, proxy, assumption.
Observed, modelled, proxy, assumption.
Never mixed quietly.
Adult addiction treatment data are stronger than adult ADHD service data. Addiction data are often Local Authority based, while ADHD service data are NHS provider or national-proxy based.
| Label | Meaning | How it is used |
|---|---|---|
| Published source | A figure from published research, government, NHS or official dataset. | Used as evidence or comparator, with source retained in the evidence register. |
| Local source | A local service figure or partner-confirmed number. | Used only where the local source is recorded and can be validated. |
| OTOS modelling estimate | A calculated planning figure based on published denominators and assumptions. | Used to size the opportunity, not as an observed fact. |
| Assumption | A scenario value used to test sensitivity. | Remains visible until replaced by local evidence from the pre-pilot. |
Local model — planning estimate only
The local model.
| Metric | Figure | Label | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adults in treatment, Cambridgeshire + Peterborough | 4,175 | Published / extracted denominator | Current planning denominator. |
| Estimated ADHD + addiction local risk cohort | 800–900 | OTOS modelling estimate | Based on published denominators and ADHD prevalence assumptions. Subject to local validation. |
| Pre-pilot cohort | 50 | Pre-pilot design | Selected with CGL, CRS, CPFT and relevant partners. |
| Pre-pilot cost | £91,520 | Budget estimate | Includes infrastructure, partner coordination, co-production, evaluation and evidence pack. |
| Modelled avoidable annual demand | ≈£18m | OTOS modelling estimate | Not a guaranteed saving. The pre-pilot exists to test the local evidence. |
The 800–900 figure is not a CPFT-reported number. It is a planning estimate that the pre-pilot is designed to validate.
Neurologically informed addiction
Numbers are useful only when
Numbers are useful only when
the label travels with them.
Published, local, modelled and assumed figures stay visibly separate throughout the pilot